Friday, July 20, 2007

Turmeric's stuck with high stocks, low demand

A comfortable stock position and low demand will ensure that turmeric prices will be subdued. However market sources say there can be some improvement in prices from August, till September because of festive demand.

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August futures contract on Thursday, by 4.30 pm, was trading up by a per cent at Rs 2,178 per quintal against the previous close at Rs 2,158.

The spot market has also shown a slight improvement. In Erode price of NCDEX variety turmeric was around Rs 2,260 and at Nizamabad it was Rs 2,160.

Angel Commodities research analyst Badruddin feels that sluggish demand from overseas as well as domestic market may keep the prices week but there can be firmness in prices in August when there is domestic festive demand.

Dungarchand Kanungo, a turmeric and chilli trader from Andhra Pradesh says, long-term sentiments are bearish with a carryover stock of 15 lakh bags.

“Even if domestic production goes down to 40 lakh bags there will be 55 lakh bags available against the requirement of 38-39 lakh bags for domestic consumption and exports,” he said. Domestic production this season was around 55 lakh bags (one bag carries 70 kg).

There are huge stocks of 12 lakh bags are at Erode mandi, close to 3.5 lakh bags at Nizamabad, 2 lakh bags in Warangal, 1.5 lakh bags in Duggirala and around 2-2.5 lakh bags in entire Maharashtra. At NCDEX warehouses, stocks are around 10,000 tonnes.

Meanwhile at Nizamabad, Warangal and Erode, about 75% sowing has been completed. Sowing through out the country is expected to be complete soon and there has been a reported fall in acreage.

“At Duggirala farmers have shifted to other crops like maize and acreage is expected to fall by 30%-40%. Despite an increase acreage in Maharshtra the overall acreage under turmeric will fall by 15%-20%,” said Ravindra Reddy from Andhra Pradesh based Vista Financial Services.

Mr Reddy expects a bearish market but feels that the August contract will trade between 2,200 and 2,500 levels as final reports on acreage in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu will arrive triggering bullish sentiments.